强奸乱伦 Ray Dalio：风雨欲来|key|iran|world|唐纳德·特朗普|enemies
瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）于北京时辰昨夜在 X（前Twitter）上发布了一篇签字著作强奸乱伦，题目为：What’s Coming: The Changing Domestic and World Orders Under the Trump Administration谈到了特朗普政府指示下接续变化的好意思国国内和宇宙纪律，全文不长，但很深入。
著作全文对译如下，寰球拨冗垂阅。
What’s Coming: The Changing Domestic and World Orders Under the Trump Administration
行将发生什么？特朗普政府指示下接续变化的国内和宇宙纪律
Now that the nightmare scenario of a close Trump loss and ensuing fight over the election has been taken off the table by a decisive Trump-led rightist sweep over Harris’s leftist alternative and a number of his key appointments have been announced， a picture of what is likely to happen is emerging. I want to make clear that the picture I am painting is meant to be as accurate as possible without any biased opinions of good or bad， because accuracy is what's most important for making decisions in the best possible way.
目下，特朗普指示的右翼势力果决打败哈里斯指示的左翼势力，使特朗普险胜并随之激勉大选之争的恶梦场景不复存在，他的一些蹙迫任命也已公布，一幅可能发生的风光正在炫耀。我思确认的是，我所形色的图景是尽可能准确的，不带任何横蛮偏见，因为准确性所以最好形态作念出决议的最蹙迫身分。
The picture that I see is one of 1) a giant renovation of government and the domestic order aimed at making it run more efficiently， which will include an internal political war to convert that vision into reality， and 2) an “America first” foreign policy and preparation for external war with China， which is perceived to be America’s greatest threat. The most recent analogous period is the 1930s， when such an approach emerged in several countries.
我所看到的情况是：1）对政府和国内纪律进行大刀阔斧的更正，主见是栽培政府和国内纪律的启动成果，其中包括为将这一愿景变为本质而进行的里面政事交游；2）奉行 "好意思国优先 "的应酬计策，准备与被视为好意思国最大恐吓的中国进行对外交游。最近的雷同时期是 20 世纪 30 年代，那时一些国度出现了这种作念法。
The people Donald Trump is choosing to make this happen with him are: Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy， who will run the newly proposed Department of Government Efficiency; Matt Gaetz， who， as Attorney General (if he gets the Senate’s approval)， will push the legal limits of what those who are running this new order can do; RFK Jr.， who would radically reform the healthcare system， as Secretary of Health and Human Services; and Marco Rubio as Secretary of State， Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence， and Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense， who will lead the fight against foreign adversaries. Many， many others—some who might be in government and some who will be outside advisors， like Tucker Carlson， Steve Bannon， and a few Trump family members—will be on the mission with Trump. They are all win-at-all-cost loyalists to the leader and to the mission of bringing down the so-called “deep state” and replacing it with a new domestic order that they hope will create maximum economic strength and fight foreign enemies.
唐纳德-特朗普遴选与他一说念竣事这一盘算的东说念主包括埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）和维维克-拉马斯瓦米（Vivek Ramaswamy）将适应握住新提议竖立的政府成果部；马特-盖茨（Matt Gaetz）将担任司法部长（要是他获取商榷院批准），他将挑战握住这一新纪律的东说念主所能作念的法律极限；小肯尼迪（RFK Jr.）将担任卫生与公众服务部部长，他将从根底上更正医疗保健系统；马可-鲁比奥（Marco Rubio）将担任国务卿，图尔西-加巴德（Tulsi Gabbard）将担任国度谍报总监，皮特-黑格塞斯（Pete Hegseth）将担任国防部长，他将指示打击异邦敌手的斗争。还有许多许多其他东说念主--有些可能是政府东说念主员，有些将是外部护士人，如塔克-卡尔森、史蒂夫-班农和一些特朗普家眷成员--将与特朗普一说念推论任务。他们齐是不吝一切代价赢得奏效的诚笃拥护者，诚笃于首脑和打倒所谓 "深层国度 "的就业，并以新的国内纪律痛自创艾，他们但愿新纪律能创造最大的经济实力并打击外敌。
Once these people are in place， the same appointment approach will likely be used to purge the government of those accused of being part of the “deep state，” who are not aligned with and loyal to the mission. This will extend to all parts of the government system including those that were previously thought to be less politically/ideologically controlled， such as the military， the Department of Justice， the FBI， the SEC， the Federal Reserve， the Food and Drug Administration， the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention， the Department of Homeland Security， the Department of the Interior， and “Schedule F” government employees (a job classification that President-elect Trump wants to reintroduce to reclassify certain government jobs to remove civil service protections). Most all appointed positions that the president (in conjunction with the Republican-controlled Senate， House， and the Department of Justice) can control will be controlled， to have people aligned with President Trump and his new domestic order in place. In the process of doing this， most everyone in and out of government will be viewed as either an ally or an enemy， and all powers at the disposal of Donald Trump and allies will be used to beat the enemies who are standing in the way of their reforms. I think they will almost certainly have a big impact on changing the domestic and world orders. What will they look like?
一朝这些东说念主到位，雷同的任命形态很可能会被用于打消政府中那些被指控为 "深层国度 "一部分的东说念主，这些东说念主并不援救和由衷于就业。这将彭胀到政府系统的所有部门，包括那些昔时被以为政事/毅力形态适度较少的部门，如戎行、司法部、联邦拜访局、证交会、好意思联储、食物药品握住局、疾病适度和忽闪中心、国土安全部、内务部，以及"F 级 "政府雇员（当选总统特朗普但愿重新引入的一种职位分类，对某些政府职位进行重新分类，以取消公事员保护）。总统（连同共和党适度的商榷院、众议院和司法部）不错适度的大多数任命职位齐将受到适度，以便让与特朗普总统偏激国内新纪律一致的东说念主履新。在此历程中，政府表里的大多数东说念主齐将被视为盟友或敌东说念主，唐纳德-特朗普和盟友所掌合手的一切权利齐将被用来打败遏止其更正的敌东说念主。我以为，他们险些服气会对调动国内和宇宙纪律产生要紧影响。他们会是什么相貌呢？
The Changing Domestic Order
接续变化的家庭纪律
It is now clear that Donald Trump and those he is choosing will reform government and the country like a corporate raider engaging in a hostile takeover of an inefficient company， making huge reforms to it by changing the people， slashing costs， and infusing it with new technologies. Think of Gordon Gekko and the perspective he conveyed in his “greed is good” speech， while recognizing that this is coming from the president of the United States， who is going to take that approach to the central government and the entire country. As mentioned， the most recent analogous historical cases were the hard-rightist states in the 1930s. To be clear， I am not saying that Trump and those in his government are fascist or will behave as fascist leaders did in many respects; what I am saying is that， in order to understand those who are now taking control with nationalistic， protectionist， top-down， government-led economic and social policies， and who have little tolerance for internal opposition and are embroiled in international great powers conflicts， it is worth understanding how those states with analogous policies in the 1930s behaved.
目下很了了，唐纳德-特朗普和他所遴选的东说念主将对政府和国度进行更正，就像一个企业攫取者对一家成果低下的公司进违规意收购一样，通过调动东说念主员、削减成本和注入新本事对其进行雄伟更正。思思戈登-盖科（Gordon Gekko）和他在 "贪心是好的 "演讲中传达的不雅点，同期雄厚到这是出自好意思国总统之口，他将对中央政府和所有这个词国度汲取这种作念法。如前所述，最近的雷同历史案例是 20 世纪 30 年代的坚毅右派国度。明确地说，我并不是说特朗普偏激政府中的那些东说念主是法西斯主义者，能够在许多方面会阐发得像法西斯指示东说念主那样；我要说的是，为了理解那些目下正以民族主义、保护主义、从上至下、政府主导的经济和社会计策掌控政权，何况险些圮绝忍里面反对派并卷入国外大国败坏的东说念主，咱们值得了解那些在 20 世纪 30 年代汲取雷同计策的国度是何如阐发的。
The economic renovation of the country will， in all likelihood， come via industrial policies that are designed to improve productivity and efficiency without much worry given to the people or issues— such as taking care of the environment， addressing climate change， remediating poverty， or encouraging diversity， equity， and inclusion—that could stand in the way of these things happening. Certain key areas (including the areas that I think are most important， which are education and debt management) will likely be neglected (and would have also been neglected by the Democrats). For as long as the Trump-Musk partnership lasts， they will be the main designers and implementers of this new domestic order.
国度的经济革命很可能和会过旨在栽培坐褥力和成果的产业计策来竣事强奸乱伦，而不会过多地磋议到东说念主或问题，如保护环境、应答风光变化、处理清贫问题，或荧惑各样性、公正性和包容性，而这些问题可能会遏止这些事情的竣事。某些关键领域（包括我以为最蹙迫的领域，即进修和债务握住）很可能会被冷落（民主党也会冷落这些领域）。唯有特朗普与马斯克的互助关系持续下去，他们就将是这一国内新纪律的主要想象者和推论者。
These policies may well be great for Wall Street and some tech and most businesses that are plagued by regulations and worried about increased taxes. While these entities have been previously restrained in many ways from doing deals， they will be much freer from government constraints. These changes will be great for financial deal makers， banks， and asset managers because they will have more freedom and more money and credit， because capital controls will be eased and the Fed will be pressured to make money easier. These policies will be great for pro-Trump tech companies because they will be allowed to grow and operate in largely unrestrained ways. These policies will also be good for lawyers， who will be busy too. I am already seeing big changes in these people’s plans to do much more under the Trump Administration than they could have done under a Democratic government. Also， AI won’t be as regulated， and tariffs will be used to simultaneously raise tax money and protect domestic producers. If the Fed continues in its path to cut interest rates (which I don’t think it should do)， that will also shift a lot of cash that is saved in money market funds and other deposits into other markets， which will be stimulative to markets and the economy.
这些计策关于华尔街、一些科技企业和大多数饱受监管困扰、操心税收加多的企业来说，可能是件功德。固然这些实体昔时在进行交易时受到许多为止，但目下它们将更目田地解脱政府的敛迹。这些变化对金融交易商、银行和钞票握住公司来说是件功德，因为他们将有更多的目田，有更多的资金和信贷，因为成本管制将得到缩小，好意思联储将受到压力，使货币变得更容易。这些计策对援救特朗普的科技公司大有裨益，因为它们将被允许以基本不受为止的形态发展和运营。这些计策对讼师也有平正，因为他们也会很忙。我已经看到这些东说念主的计算发生了很大变化，在特朗普政府的指示下，他们要作念的事情比在民主党政府的指示下要多得多。此外，东说念主工智能将不会像昔时那样受到监管，关税将被用来同期栽培税收和保护国内坐褥商。要是好意思联储连续走降息的说念路（我以为它不应该这样作念），那么也会将多半储蓄在货币市集基金和其他入款中的现款转折到其他市集，这将对市集和经济起到刺激作用。
Also， the realization that the United States is in an economic war and a geopolitical war， and could find itself in a military war， with China as well as with others like Russia， Iran， and North Korea， will have big effects on domestic security and domestic policies. For example， ensuring that the U.S. will have acceptable amounts of all key technologies will lead to policies for these technologies to be made in the U.S. (e.g.， 20% of the most advanced chips will have to be produced in the U.S. by 2030) or made in allied countries， which will require the central government to have strong and insist on well-implemented energy and regulatory policies that enable these changes to be made.
此外，好意思国毅力到我梗直处于一场经济交游和地缘政事交游之中，并可能与中国以及俄罗斯、伊朗和朝鲜等国爆发军事交游，这将对国内安全和国内计策产生要紧影响。举例，要确保好意思国领有可禁受数目的所相关键本事，就必须制定计策，要求这些本事必须在好意思国坐褥（举例，到 2030 年，20% 的首先进芯片必须在好意思国坐褥）或在友邦坐褥，这就要求中央政府制定强有劲的、对持实施的动力和监管计策，使这些变化得以竣事。
The Changing International World Order
接续变化的国外宇宙纪律
The international world order will change from a) the existing tattered remains of the post-World War II system that was created by the U.S. and its allies， in which there are/were generally agreed-upon global standards of behavior， rules， and governing organizations like the UN， WTO， International Court of Justice， IMF， World Bank， etc. to b) a more fragmented world order， in which the United States will pursue an “America First” policy with clear categorizations of allies， enemies， and nonaligned countries， as there will be greater amounts of economic and geopolitical war and a greater-than-ever chance of military war in the next 10 years. In other words， we are now coming to the end of an era led by the United States， in which countries tried to work out together how to be with each other through multinational organizations with guiding principles and rules， and into a more self-interested， law-of-the-jungle-type order with the United States being one of the two biggest players and China the other— and the fight being largely the classic one of capitalism versus communism (in their contemporary versions).
国外宇宙纪律将从 a) 由好意思国偏激友邦创建的二战后体系的支离破灭的残余，其中有/也曾有渊博认可的全球举止尺度、步伐和握住组织，如说合国、世贸组织、国外法院、国外货币基金组织、宇宙银行等，转折为 b) 愈加支离破灭的宇宙纪律，其中好意思国将奉行 "好意思国优先 "计策，明确辩认友邦、敌国和不结友邦家。到 b) 一个愈加支离破灭的宇宙纪律，在这个纪律中，好意思国将奉行 "好意思国优先 "计策，明确辩认友邦、敌国和不结友邦家，因为在改日 10 年中，经济和地缘政事交游的数目将会加多，发生军事交游的几率也将跳动以往任何时候。换句话说，在好意思国的指示下，列国试图通过具有领导原则和步伐的多国组织来共同处理何如彼此相处的问题，咱们目下行将收尾这个期间，干涉一个愈加自私主义的森林国法型纪律，好意思国事其中最大的两个参与者之一，中国事另一个参与者--这场斗争在很猛进度上是capitalism versus communism （现代版块）的经典斗争。
So， concepts of morality and ethics that were shaped by American views of what is moral and ethical will be much less relevant， as the United States will no longer be the world leader in proposing and enforcing these principles. Allies and enemies will be chosen more on the basis of tactical considerations like what the deals will be. The question of which side countries are on will be most important. China will be treated as the primary enemy because it is both the most powerful and the most ideologically opposed， while Russia， North Korea， and Iran are also enemies. In fact， China is widely considered the United States’ single greatest threat， even a greater threat than the domestic threats. As for other countries， I won’t now digress into an explanation of where they stand， but I will say that they all are now categorized as allies and enemies to varying degrees， and this will be a guide for dealing with them. I will， however， say that detailed plans are now being worked out for dealing with each major country and each major subject area. All countries will be given great pressures and possibilities to change their domestic orders to be aligned with， rather than opposed to， the Trump-U.S. leadership and order， and if they don’t get on our side， they will encounter negative consequences. This conflict between the two great powers will create opportunities， most importantly business opportunities， for neutral nonaligned countries.
因此，由好意思国东说念主的说念德不雅和伦理不雅变成的说念德和伦理意见的关系性将大大裁汰，因为好意思国将不再是提议和推论这些原则的宇宙指示者。盟友和敌东说念主的遴选将更多地基于战术上的磋议，比如将达成什么样的交易。国度站在哪一边将是最蹙迫的问题。中国将被视为主要敌东说念主，因为它既是最将强的国度，亦然毅力形态上最对立的国度，而俄罗斯、朝鲜和伊朗亦然敌东说念主。事实上，中国被平凡以为是好意思国最大的恐吓，以致比国内恐吓更大。至于其他国度，我目下不思离题诠释它们的态度，但我要说的是，它们目下齐在不同进度上被归类为盟友和敌东说念主，这将是与它们打交说念的指南。不外，我要说的是，目下正在制定详备计算，以应答每个主要国度和每个主要主题领域。所有国度齐将面对雄伟的压力和可能性，以调动其国内纪律，与特朗普-好意思国的指示柔纪律保持一致，而不是对立，要是他们不站在咱们这一边，就会遭受负面后果。两个大国之间的败坏将为中立的不结友邦家创造契机，最蹙迫的是商机。
This change in this world-order dynamic will also have big implications for the developing world (or the “Global South” as it’s now called)， and therefore the whole world， because it contains roughly 85% of the world’s population and will likely go its own way， because the U.S. will no longer lead a common world order based on certain ideals and other countries won’t necessarily want to follow the U.S. The U.S. and China will be competing for allies， with China generally believed to be in a much better position to win over nonaligned countries because China is more important economically and does a better job exerting its soft power. Given these changes in the world order， nonaligned countries that 1) are financially strong—i.e.， have good income statements and balance sheets， 2) have internal order and capital markets that facilitate people and the country to be productive， and 3) are not in an international war will benefit.
这种宇宙纪律态势的变化也将对发展中叶界（或目下所说的 "全球南部"）乃至所有这个词宇宙产生要紧影响，因为发展中叶界约占宇宙东说念主口的 85%，何况很可能会走我方的路，因为好意思国将不再指示基于特定理思的共同宇宙纪律，而其他国度也不一定茂盛作陪好意思国。好意思国和中国将争夺盟友，一般以为中国在争取不结友邦家方面更有上风，因为中国在经济上更蹙迫，在软实力方面作念得更好。鉴于宇宙纪律发生的这些变化，以下不结友邦家将从中获益：1）经济实力浑朴，即领有清雅的收入报表和钞票欠债表；2）领有成心于东说念主民和国度坐褥的里面纪律和成本市集；3）莫得卷入国外交游。
More Specifically， to Elaborate， There Will Be…
更具体地说，将有......
…More government influence to achieve the government’s objectives， even if that comes at the expense of our free-market， profit-seeking system， with debates between the conservatives who favor this top-down direction and those who favor the free market more. Along these lines， we should expect more government influence on private markets to achieve the government’s objectives. This is needed to achieve the grand plan to reshape the economy and prepare for war. So， we should keep in mind that cost efficiency and national security achieved by the government working with national-champion companies is the primary objective， not profit-making alone， because profit making won’t achieve those goals. We should pay attention to policy shifts that will drive what areas of the economy will benefit most (e.g.， the energy and minerals sectors that support the AI technology sector). While there will be free-market winners， there are obvious cases where the best companies in the United States are not good enough to give the United States what is needed (e.g.， in advanced semiconductors)， so key relationships with aligned producers (e.g.， TSMC) to produce in the U.S. are needed to minimize all dependencies on foreign adversaries. Besides the need to domestically produce essential technologies， there is the need to domestically produce steel， autos， and many other essential items. That will mean more onshoring and friendshoring. There is also a recognized sabotage risk of being cut off in a number of ways that will have to be dealt with.
……为了竣事政府的盘算，即使这可能以就义目田市集和追求利润的系统为代价，也会出现更多的政府干扰。这激勉了保守派里面的争论，一方援救这种从上至下的模式，另一方则更倾向于目田市集。基于这一趋势，咱们不错预期政府会对私营市集施加更多影响，以竣事其盘算。这种干扰是竣事重塑经济和备战宏伟计算的必要条目。因此，咱们应该雄厚到，通过政府与国度冠军企业互助竣事成本效益和国度安全是首要盘算，而不单是是追求利润，因为只是追求利润无法竣事这些盘算。
咱们需要护理计策的变化，这将决定哪些经济领域受益最大（举例援救东说念主工智能本事行业的动力和矿产领域）。尽管目田市集合会有赢家，但赫然有些情况下好意思国最优秀的公司仍不及以称心国度的需求（举例在先进半导体领域）。因此，需要与友好坐褥商（如台积电）扶植关键互助关系，在好意思国国内进行坐褥，以尽量减少对异邦敌手的依赖。除了需要在国内坐褥关键本事外，还需要国内坐褥钢铁、汽车以偏激他许多蹙迫商品。这将意味着更多的回流坐褥和“友岸外包”（friendshoring）。此外，东说念主们也雄厚到存在被以多种形态割断供应的龙套风险，必须对此加以应答。
…A massive deregulatory push in support of cost-efficient production.
......为援救成本效益型坐褥，大范畴缩小监管。
工口h番在线观看网站…Immigration and deportation actions， with the initial emphasis being on closing the border and deporting undocumented immigrants with criminal records.
……侨民和闭幕举止，源头的重心是阻滞边境并闭幕有违规纪录的无证侨民。
…Trade and tariff reform....交易和关税更正。
…Challenges in assembling and working with U.S. allies. Japan is our most important ally in the geopolitical conflict with China， so what is now happening there politically is important. Other allies are the U.K. and Australia， but they are not great powers. Europe is weak， has its hands full with its own problems， and doesn’t have a dog in this fight， while it has Russia on its doorstep and can’t fight it without the U.S.’s NATO support. Most other countries don’t want to get into the fight， as what is being fought for by the United States isn’t as important to them as it is to the United States， and they have more economic dependencies on China than on the U.S. The nonaligned Global South rising powers—which， along with China and Russia， are members of BRICS—are countries to pay attention to.
……在说磨灭与好意思国盟友互助方面面对的挑战。在与中国的地缘败坏中，日本是咱们最蹙迫的盟友，因此那处目下发生的政事事件异常蹙迫。其他盟友还有英国和澳大利亚，但它们齐不是大国。欧洲手无绵力薄才，自己问题缠身，在这场斗争中毫无上风可言，而俄罗斯就在它的家门口，莫得好意思国的北约援救，它根底无法与之抗衡。大多数其他国度并不思卷入这场斗争，因为好意思国为之昂然的东西对它们来说并不像对好意思国那么蹙迫，何况它们在经济上对中国的依赖要大于对好意思国的依赖。不结好的全球南边崛起大国--它们与中国和俄罗斯同为金砖国度成员--是值得护理的国度。
…The high economic costs of being the dominant world power—i.e.， of having the most important technologies， a strong military， and being able to provide soft power—will be greater than the profit-making approach can provide， so how that economic reality will be handled will need to be worked out.
......成为宇宙霸主的漂后经济成本--即领有最蹙迫的本事、将强的军事力量以及提供软实力的本事--将比盈利形态所能提供的更大，因此需要处理何如处理这还是济本质的问题。
…The need to lower taxes to keep the electorate happy and to keep money in the hands of those who are most productive. Trump and his advisors believe that a lower corporate tax rate than currently exists (around 20%) will raise total taxation and raise productivity. That perspective is good for the markets.
……裁汰税收的必要性，以保持选民自在，并将资金留在最具坐褥力的东说念主手中。特朗普偏激护士人以为，比面前水平更低的公司税率（约20%）将加多全体税收收入并栽培坐褥率。这种不雅点对市集成心。
…Significant reforms of the healthcare system.
......医疗保健系统的要紧更正。
There is a very limited time—the first 100 days and then the first two years—to get these difficult-to-do things done， so there will have to be vicious prioritization. We don’t yet know what will be prioritized and how successful the new administration will be when the force of its aspirations meets the relatively immovable object of the entrenched system. It certainly will be an interesting and important time， so let’s stay in touch.
完成这些难以完成的就业的时辰异常有限--头 100 天，然后是头两年，因此必须狠狠地详情优先次序。咱们还不知说念哪些事情会被优先磋议，也不知说念新政府在其愿望的力量遭受树大根深的轨制这一相对不成动摇的物体时会取得多大的奏效。这服气将是一个瞻仰而蹙迫的时刻，让咱们保持规划。
The views expressed in this article are mine and not necessarily Bridgewater’s.
本文所抒发的不雅点仅代表个东说念主不雅点，与 Bridgewater 无关。
图：社区的免费星球，不如期共享全球市集不雅点，饶恕加入
图：社区的跨钞票策略星球，提供1-5交易日市集札记，笼罩全球市集跨钞票启动逻辑解读；周日提供WeeklyWrap复盘，带寰球感受和读懂真正的市集。
声明：著作本色不代表本号不雅点强奸乱伦，不组成投资建议，也不行为任何法律法例、监管计策的依据，投资者不应以该等信息行为决议依据或依赖该等信息。